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【zt:briefing.com】Floor Talk (股市)

by super(学霸) ⌂, 2015-03-25 16:48 @ 学霸

published on wuwei.ca at 2015-03-25 16:48, topic link: http://wuwei.ca/index.php?id=22035

The stock market has run into a wall of resistance today formed around technical, fundamental, and qualitative developments.

The Technical An early attempt to advance was hastily beaten back with the S P 500 unable to clear resistance at the 2098/2100 level The early fail invited a test of support at the trendline off the March lows (2091), which was also taken out With the break of the trendline, the S P 500 pulled back to test another support zone in the 2077 area, which was a level that marked a 50% gain from the March low. Holding here could invite a decent effort to cut today's losses. Next support is at 2072, which represents the 50-day exponential moving average

The Fundamental Valuation concerns are coming into play for the broader market. S P 500 trading at roughly 17.7x forward twelve month earnings entering today's trading and ahead of what is expected to be a relatively disappointing first quarter earnings reporting period. Valuation concerns also manifesting themselves in the hard-hit biotechnology and semiconductor spaces -- two of the market's best-performing areas certainly over the last 52 weeks iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 345.48, -10.47) is down 2.9% today and 5.9% for the week Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH 54.58, -2.13) is down 3.8% today and 5.6% for the week The February Durable Orders report was lousy with declines across nearly every major category and orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business investment -- falling for the sixth straight month

The Qualitative Weakness in the market's key leadership groups has fostered broader profit-taking activity The "bad economic news is good news" dynamic has not played out in typical fashion. That is, participants are not buying on the idea that it supports the fed funds rate staying at the zero bound for longer. The U.S. Dollar Index (-0.4% at 96.78) is weak again, yet that hasn't spurred any concerted buying interest outside of the commodity complex

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